A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
