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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still